Will the third quarter be the bottom of the silicon wafer industry?

The silicon fab was affected by the adjustment of the entire semiconductor industry inventory this year, and the profit performance was not satisfactory. However, since most of the customer inventories have been reduced to a reasonable water level, most silicon fabs believe that the customer's inventory level will be healthy in the second half of the year, and demand will recover from the fourth quarter, driving the profit performance to rise.

Last year, the silicon wafer market continued to be hot, the industry was in short supply, and prices continued to rise. The industry expects that the market will remain hot this year.

However, as the Sino-US trade war has continued to heat up this year, the market's pulling momentum has slowed down, and the entire semiconductor industry is facing greater inventory pressure, which has a negative impact on the profitability of silicon fabs.

Xu Xiulan, chairman of Global Crystal, said that the second quarter should be the highest level of customer inventory, the third quarter will begin to slow down, the expected volume will increase in the second half, customers will also strive to reduce inventory. As for the Sino-US trade war, she predicted that Global Crystal's total silicon wafer shipments will decline slightly this year, but under the product mix adjustment, the annual revenue is still expected to grow slightly.

Global Crystal pointed out that almost all customers' inventory levels are no longer increasing, and many customer inventories have improved to normal water levels. Other customer inventories show a trend of decreasing month by month and quarter by season. If the major environmental factors can gradually stabilize, the uncertainty of market demand will also slow down.

Xu Xiulan also revealed that Global Crystal has signed a long-term coverage rate of 8-90% in the past two years, and the long-term implementation rate of the first quarter is 100%. In the future, it may retain flexibility for customers on orders, but add and subtract The goal for the whole year is still to pursue growth.

Taisheng Branch pointed out that demand in the third quarter was weaker than that in the second quarter, and the price decline was more serious. Although market demand continued to be affected by the Sino-US trade war, it was driven by demand for artificial intelligence, 5G, Internet of Things and automotive electronics. Next, it is expected that the third quarter will be the bottom of the operation.

Taishengke also said that customer demand has begun to recover since September, and operations in the fourth quarter are expected to recover, and prices will tend to slow down.

Hejing said that demand was still weak in the third quarter due to the Sino-US trade war. However, the operation will be bottomed in the third quarter, and the downstream customer inventory adjustment is expected to be reduced to a reasonable water level, and demand will gradually recover from the fourth quarter.