SEMI: Semiconductor slowdown is expected to rise in the second half of the year

According to the Economic Daily, Zeng Ruizhen, director of industrial analysis at the International Semiconductor Industry Association (SEMI), pointed out that this year's storage market demand is lower than in previous years, mainly due to the decline in cloud server investment. In addition, the industry inventory level is still higher than the same period last year, but it is still higher than the same period last year. From the end of the second season to the beginning of the third season, the stock water level has gradually decreased, but it is still in the inventory adjustment period, the storage inventory level is relatively high, the overall adjustment period may last until the second half of this year, and the second half of the year will be monthly and monthly. space.

Looking forward to the semiconductor industry trend from the second half of this year to next year, Zeng Ruizhen expects that in the second half of this year, it is expected to return to the season or month by month. It is expected to return to 5% to 7% next year. The intensity depends on the progress of the trade war and the storage market. In terms of fab investment, he estimated that the growth rate of fab investment in the first half of the year will converge to about 8% per year. Among them, the investment in Korean fabs will be flat next year, and related investment in Taiwan may be flat or down, mainly due to storage investment. Slow down.

SEMI China’s president Julong said recently that trade tensions between China and the United States may worsen the already slowing semiconductor industry, while geopolitical risks are the main uncertainties of the industry, while US technology controls and The export restrictions of Chinese technology giant Huawei may also have a far-reaching impact on the industry and fundamentally change the global supply chain.

Julong said that including memory chips, US companies control 50% of the global semiconductor market. If they do not contain memory chips, they may exceed 60% to 70%. If they cannot sell products to Huawei, they will have a major impact on US companies. influences.