In the PC DRAM market, prices are expected to decrease by 8% to 13%. This decline is primarily due to weak consumer demand and an oversupply of DDR4 memory modules. While DDR5 adoption is steadily increasing, it has not yet reached the scale needed to offset the surplus of previous-generation DDR4 modules. As a result, PC manufacturers are taking advantage of lower prices to bolster inventories, albeit cautiously, to avoid overstocking in an uncertain demand environment.
Server DRAM prices are also projected to decline, though to a lesser extent than PC DRAM, with an anticipated drop of 5% to 10%. The ongoing transition from DDR4 to DDR5 and High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) continues to influence the server DRAM market. Major suppliers are reallocating production capacity from DDR4 to newer technologies to meet growing demand from data centers and AI applications. However, an oversupply of DDR4 memory, coupled with cautious purchasing strategies from enterprise customers, has kept prices under pressure. Although DDR5 adoption is growing, its current usage remains insufficient to offset the surplus of DDR4 supply.
In the GPU VRAM segment, prices are forecasted to fall by 5% to 10%, primarily due to weak demand and rising inventory levels. While some production capacity has shifted to HBM, particularly for high-performance GPUs used in AI and data center applications, demand for traditional graphics DRAM remains sluggish. The gaming and professional graphics markets have yet to fully recover from periods of high inventory levels and subdued consumer demand, contributing to continued price declines for GPU VRAM.
The ongoing decline in DRAM prices aligns with broader trends observed over the past two years. Earlier reports indicated significant price drops in early 2023, with DRAM costs plummeting by as much as 20% in the first quarter alone. These declines were driven by a combination of oversupply and weak consumer demand, resulting in sustained price drops throughout the year.
By 2024, although the pace of decline had slowed, the market continued to face challenges. Elevated manufacturer inventory levels and weak demand across key sectors such as consumer electronics, gaming, and data centers persisted. Additionally, the slow adoption of newer memory technologies like DDR5 and HBM led to prolonged oversupply of older-generation DRAM modules, further exacerbating price instability.
As 2025 begins, these challenges show no immediate signs of resolution. Cautious procurement strategies by buyers and ongoing supply-demand imbalances are expected to keep DRAM market prices suppressed. While this presents an opportunity for buyers to secure lower-cost components, suppliers face mounting pressure in an increasingly competitive environment.