The link between global GDP and the IC market is increasingly close

On July 26, IC Insights pointed out in the latest report that the impact of global GDP on the global IC market is expected to rise.

IC Insights expects that the correlation coefficient between global GDP and IC market growth will reach a very high 0.88 (0.87 in 2010-2018) from 2018 to 2023. If the memory is not included, this coefficient will be as high as 0.94. This shows that the relationship between global GDP and the IC market is increasingly close.


The figure above shows that between 2010 and 2018, the correlation coefficient between global GDP growth and IC market growth is 0.87 (0.92 when memory is excluded), which is already a very high value because the coefficient of complete positive correlation is 1.0. Prior to this, the correlation coefficient had grown from -0.10 in the 1990s (negative correlation, ie, essentially no correlation) to 0.63 in the early 21st century.

IC Insights believes that the increasing number of mergers and acquisitions has led to a decline in the number of major IC manufacturers and suppliers. This is a major change in the supply base, which represents the maturity of the IC industry, which also helps global GDP growth and IC market. Growth is more closely related.

Another reason for the increasing closeness between global GDP and the IC market is that the IC market is shifting from commercial applications to consumer-driven. According to IC Insights, about 60% of the IC market was driven by commercial applications 20 years ago, and 40% was driven by consumer applications, but these percentages have been reversed today. Therefore, as consumer-oriented environments drive electronic system sales and the growth of the IC market, the health of the global economy is becoming increasingly important in measuring IC market trends.