Semiconductor is expected to recover in 2020, and profits are expected to increase 8 to 12% annually
According to Yingheng.com, JP Morgan analyst Harlan Sur released a research report on Monday (16th) that the semiconductor market will recover next year, and the overall revenue of the semiconductor industry is expected to increase by 4 to 7% by 2020, making a profit It will also increase by 8 to 12%.
Sur pointed out that chip stocks are suffering from the US-China trade war this year, demand is falling, and semiconductor performance is weak. He predicts that the overall revenue of the semiconductor industry (excluding computer memory) will fall 6 to 8% this year, which is lower than the overall growth in 2018. 8%.
However, since this year, U.S. stocks have been refreshingly high, and chip stocks have also been rising. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has soared 55% this year, far exceeding the 32% increase of the US Nasdaq and 26% of the S & P 500 during the same period. The strong rise reflects the semiconductor market is expected to recover next year.
Therefore, Sur predicts that the average semiconductor inventories will increase by 15-20% in the next 12 to 18 months, and given that demand for 5G mobile phones, games, data centers and computer chips is expected to increase significantly in 2020, he predicts that the overall industry revenue will increase next year. 4 to 7%, profits will also increase 8 to 12%.
Sur said: "In the long run, we expect chip stocks to maintain steady growth, and we expect annual revenue growth to reach mid-to-low single-digit growth."
In terms of chip stocks, Broadcom (AVGO-US) is the first stock recommended by Sur. Analysts believe that Broadcom ’s diversified development is undervalued by the market and that the company has a strong cash flow. It is expected that the stock price will rise strongly. In addition, analysts also named chip stocks in other semiconductor fields. For example, the data center chip categories are: Intel (INTC-US), Micron (MU-US) and Huida NVIDIA (NVDA-US); 5G applications push Marvell and Covo (QRVO-US); among the basic semiconductor equipment are KLAC-US, Texas Instruments and Microchip Technology.
According to the previous semi-conductor equipment forecast report published by the International Semiconductor Industry Association (SEMI), it is estimated that global semiconductor manufacturing equipment sales in 2019 will reach 57.6 billion U.S. dollars, down 10.5% from the historical high of 64.4 billion U.S. dollars last year, but it is expected in 2020 Gradually warmed up and set a new historical high in 2021. Global semiconductor equipment sales are expected to grow 5.5% in 2020 to reach 60.8 billion U.S. dollars; this growth trend is expected to continue to 2021, hitting a record high of 66.8 billion U.S. dollars.
In addition, various institutions in South Korea have forecasted the temperature recovery of the semiconductor industry. Bank of Korea predicts that from the recent changes in memory unit prices and leading indicators, global semiconductors are expected to recover in the middle of next year. However, the Nomura Securities Research Center expects that the prices of flash memory and DRAM will rebound in the first half of next year, but it is expected to return to the semiconductor glory in 2021. The LG Economic Research Institute believes that investment in new industries is shrinking, and the time for semiconductor recovery may be delayed.
Sur pointed out that chip stocks are suffering from the US-China trade war this year, demand is falling, and semiconductor performance is weak. He predicts that the overall revenue of the semiconductor industry (excluding computer memory) will fall 6 to 8% this year, which is lower than the overall growth in 2018. 8%.
However, since this year, U.S. stocks have been refreshingly high, and chip stocks have also been rising. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has soared 55% this year, far exceeding the 32% increase of the US Nasdaq and 26% of the S & P 500 during the same period. The strong rise reflects the semiconductor market is expected to recover next year.
Therefore, Sur predicts that the average semiconductor inventories will increase by 15-20% in the next 12 to 18 months, and given that demand for 5G mobile phones, games, data centers and computer chips is expected to increase significantly in 2020, he predicts that the overall industry revenue will increase next year. 4 to 7%, profits will also increase 8 to 12%.
Sur said: "In the long run, we expect chip stocks to maintain steady growth, and we expect annual revenue growth to reach mid-to-low single-digit growth."
In terms of chip stocks, Broadcom (AVGO-US) is the first stock recommended by Sur. Analysts believe that Broadcom ’s diversified development is undervalued by the market and that the company has a strong cash flow. It is expected that the stock price will rise strongly. In addition, analysts also named chip stocks in other semiconductor fields. For example, the data center chip categories are: Intel (INTC-US), Micron (MU-US) and Huida NVIDIA (NVDA-US); 5G applications push Marvell and Covo (QRVO-US); among the basic semiconductor equipment are KLAC-US, Texas Instruments and Microchip Technology.
According to the previous semi-conductor equipment forecast report published by the International Semiconductor Industry Association (SEMI), it is estimated that global semiconductor manufacturing equipment sales in 2019 will reach 57.6 billion U.S. dollars, down 10.5% from the historical high of 64.4 billion U.S. dollars last year, but it is expected in 2020 Gradually warmed up and set a new historical high in 2021. Global semiconductor equipment sales are expected to grow 5.5% in 2020 to reach 60.8 billion U.S. dollars; this growth trend is expected to continue to 2021, hitting a record high of 66.8 billion U.S. dollars.
In addition, various institutions in South Korea have forecasted the temperature recovery of the semiconductor industry. Bank of Korea predicts that from the recent changes in memory unit prices and leading indicators, global semiconductors are expected to recover in the middle of next year. However, the Nomura Securities Research Center expects that the prices of flash memory and DRAM will rebound in the first half of next year, but it is expected to return to the semiconductor glory in 2021. The LG Economic Research Institute believes that investment in new industries is shrinking, and the time for semiconductor recovery may be delayed.